5. Early warnings

An early warning is a condition that needs a management decision. DFFMS checks every day at 06:00 UTC and sends the warning in-app, by email and by push to the people responsible. Warnings are WARNING or CRITICAL.

5.1 Rules that DFFMS checks

All facilities

Rule	Severity	Plain meaning
Case default	CRITICAL	A financing case has defaulted
Arrears at 30 and 90 days	WARNING; CRITICAL at 90 days	Repayments are overdue
Debt-service coverage below minimum	WARNING; CRITICAL below 1.00 times	Minimum is 1.20 times by default

F-I

Rule	Severity	Plain meaning
Climate trigger in a state with live loans	CRITICAL	A reading passed its threshold in an area with financed cases. Only readings from the last 30 days count. You must close it by hand.
Concentration above term-sheet limits	WARNING	One cluster above 5%, one value chain above 25%, or one state above 30% of the facility envelope. These limits are fixed.

F-II

Rule	Severity	Plain meaning
Receipt expiring or expired	WARNING; CRITICAL once expired	A pledged receipt expires within 14 days, or has expired
Loan-to-value above approved advance rate	WARNING; CRITICAL above the higher of the limit and 75%	The loan is large for the value of the goods
Commodity price drop	WARNING; CRITICAL at 30%	Price fell 15% or more in 30 days
Warehouse or commodity concentration	WARNING	One warehouse above 40%, or one commodity above 60%, of pledged value

F-III

Rule	Severity	Plain meaning
Delivery overdue	WARNING; CRITICAL at 14 days late	Delivery is 7 days late
Delivery shortfall	WARNING	Less was delivered than contracted
Buyer payment delayed	WARNING; CRITICAL at 60 days late	Buyer is 30 days late to pay
First-loss utilisation	WARNING at 75%; CRITICAL at 100%	Share of first-loss cover already used

F-V

Rule	Severity	Plain meaning
Construction delay	WARNING	A milestone is more than 30 days late
Delayed disbursement	WARNING	A scheduled payment is more than 30 days past due
Cost overrun	WARNING; CRITICAL above 20%	Estimated cost is above 10% over budget
Financing gap	CRITICAL	Estimated cost is more than the money committed
Intervention required	CRITICAL	A financing gap and a construction delay or delayed disbursement. It also raises a level 1 escalation on the financing case.

5.2 Early-warning thresholds

Only the Platform Super Administrator or the Client System Administrator can change these, in Configuration, section Early-warning thresholds, with Save early-warning thresholds.

Setting (label on screen)	Default
Receipt expiry warning (days)	14
Commodity price drop (basis points)	1500 (15%)
Warehouse concentration	4000 (40%)
Commodity concentration	6000 (60%)
Delivery overdue (days)	7
Buyer payment delay (days)	30
First-loss utilisation	7500 (75%)
Arrears alerts (days overdue)	30, 90
Minimum debt-service coverage (x100)	120 (1.20 times)
Construction delay (days)	30
Delayed disbursement (days)	30
Cost overrun	1000 (10%)

Basis points are a way of writing percentages: 1500 basis points is 15%.

5.3 Record a climate reading (NiMet bulletin)

Who can do it: Client System Administrators, Programme Administrators, State Coordinators and Monitoring Analysts.

Steps

1. Open Facility monitoring.
2. Click Record a climate reading.
3. Choose the Hazard: Rainfall deficit, Drought, Excess rainfall, Flood, Heat stress, Pest or disease, or Other.
4. Choose the State and enter the Area (LGA, SAPZ or cluster).
5. Enter the Weather station or index and the Observed value.
6. Enter the Trigger threshold and the Unit.
7. Enter the Observed on date and the Source, such as the NiMet dekadal bulletin.
8. Save.

Example

Ngozi Eze records a Rainfall deficit in the Ikara maize cluster in Kaduna. Observed rainfall is 41 millimetres against a trigger threshold of 60. For rainfall deficit and drought, a reading at or below the threshold is a trigger.

What happens next

• For a trigger, DFFMS checks the financed cases in that state straight away and warns the monitoring team. The screen says: "Trigger condition met. Financed cases in the state are being checked and the insurer and lenders notified." DFFMS alerts only its own staff. Your team must contact the insurer and lenders itself.
• For a non-trigger, the screen says: "Reading recorded. The trigger condition is not met."
• The reading appears in the Climate readings table with its Deviation and Status.
• A climate trigger stays open until someone records a management decision (5.5).

Common problems

• "The state is outside your data scope." Record readings only for states in your scope.
• "The climate reading could not be recorded." Check that every field is filled in and the values are numbers.
• No warning appeared. Readings older than 30 days do not raise a warning. There must also be live financed cases in that state.

5.4 Record a market price

Who can do it: the same roles as climate readings.

Steps

1. On Facility monitoring, click Record a market price.
2. Choose the Commodity, the State and enter the Market.
3. Enter the Price (₦ per unit), the Unit, the Observed on date and the Source.
4. Save.

Example: Ngozi records maize at ₦465,000 per tonne at the Zaria grain market.

What happens next: the price appears in the readings table and feeds the F-II rules, such as the price drop and loan-to-value warnings.

5.5 Act on an early warning

Who can acknowledge: Client System Administrators, Programme Administrators, State Coordinators, Monitoring Analysts, Institution Administrators and Finance Approvers.

Who can resolve: Platform Super Administrators, Client System Administrators, Programme Administrators and Monitoring Analysts.

Steps

1. Open the warning from Notifications or from the Early warnings list on Facility monitoring.
2. Read the title and body. The body says what is happening.
3. Click Acknowledge. The warning is marked with your name, so colleagues know it is being handled.
4. Take the action in the real world, for example contacting the insurer or lender.
5. Click Resolve.
6. In Management decision taken, write what was decided, using at least 5 characters. Example: "An insurance claim has been opened with NAIC. Lenders have given affected members a sixty-day repayment holiday."
7. Confirm.

What happens next

• The warning closes and the decision stays on the record for auditors and partners.
• Most warnings close by themselves when the condition clears at the next check.
• Climate triggers never close by themselves. Someone must resolve them with a decision.
• If the condition is still present, the warning reopens and notifies again. Resolving does not hide a live problem.

Common problems

• No Resolve button. Your role can acknowledge but not resolve. Ask a Programme Administrator or Monitoring Analyst.
• The warning came back. The condition is still present. Check the body and the latest readings.
• The count did not change. Refresh the page. Automatic closing happens at the daily check.

5.6 The F-V construction chain

For infrastructure projects, warnings link together like this:

1. A construction delay (late milestones) or a delayed disbursement (late payments) raises a WARNING.
2. If the project also has a financing gap, DFFMS raises Intervention required.
3. Intervention required is CRITICAL. It raises a level 1 escalation on the financing case, so the Programme Administrator is told.

The warning body lists the signals that fired, for example "construction delay → financing gap", and suggests a recovery plan: re-phasing, extra sponsor equity or co-financing, before more money is paid out. A cost overrun alone does not start the chain.